"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
-- John Maynard Keynes
Tesla simply shouldn't be a $1T company and that's been true for some time. Last year they sold ~1.8M vehicles in 2024 (down 1.1% from 2023), which values the company at roughly $600k per car sold.
GM has a market cap of $46B and sold roughly 3 times as many cars and that was an increase over 2023. That values GM at under $10k per car sold in 2024.
Consider Tesla sales by country [1]. A large chunk of those sales were in China. Those will get eaten by BYD and others. That says nothing about Tesla. The Chinese government always plays favorites with local companies. There is no "winning" in China for foreign companies.
Tesla relies on trade barriers to exist. In the US, Europe and Australia, the floodgates could open to much more affordable EVs from China. Even if they can survive that, it'll drive down average selling prices.
The Supercharger network is a competitive advantage but one with a ticking clock on it.
On top of all this, Elon's personal politics hurt him most with the very people who are most inclined to buy EVs: people who live in cities and care about the enviroment.
The American government tends to protect large American companies so maybe Tesla is a safe bet. But you're betting this administration or a later one not having a falling out with Elon or simply eviscerating the EV market because it's "woke". We're already getting rid of Biden's EV tax credit. That's going to hurt Tesla too.
I don't think Musk has any ideology outside amassing as much money and adoration as possible, while spinelessly saying anything and everything that gets him to that goal. He's a professional larper with no morals or ethics.
For a trade war, the EU does have a targeted approach, that's what happened with Trump last time where they targeted specific states and that's what I'm betting will happen this time.
GM has a market cap of $46B and sold roughly 3 times as many cars and that was an increase over 2023. That values GM at under $10k per car sold in 2024.
Consider Tesla sales by country [1]. A large chunk of those sales were in China. Those will get eaten by BYD and others. That says nothing about Tesla. The Chinese government always plays favorites with local companies. There is no "winning" in China for foreign companies.
Tesla relies on trade barriers to exist. In the US, Europe and Australia, the floodgates could open to much more affordable EVs from China. Even if they can survive that, it'll drive down average selling prices.
The Supercharger network is a competitive advantage but one with a ticking clock on it.
On top of all this, Elon's personal politics hurt him most with the very people who are most inclined to buy EVs: people who live in cities and care about the enviroment.
The American government tends to protect large American companies so maybe Tesla is a safe bet. But you're betting this administration or a later one not having a falling out with Elon or simply eviscerating the EV market because it's "woke". We're already getting rid of Biden's EV tax credit. That's going to hurt Tesla too.
[1]: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/tesla-sal...