First off, I specifically said that the first lot of calculations was based on unreasonable assumptions, to gauge the size of the problem.
Attacking them because they're "pie in the sky" frankly sounds like you're deliberately misinterpreting me, or at least you didn't bother reading the post.
Secondly, the scheme I'm proposing does not require any government subsidies. The money comes from selling the power back to the grid.
With my proposed figures - 5% EV ownership (63,752 cars), 40% battery usage sold back to the grid, you could reduce peak power usage by 15%. South Australia spent ~$990 million on electric power last year (not exact figures; based on 619k households from the census with an average spend of $1600).
Assuming 15% reduction in peak power is a 10% reduction in cost (which is reasonable, because capital costs and fixed running costs dominate electric spending expenses), that yields $99 million a year in savings.
The cost of 63,752 Model S cars is $3.1 billion. However, you have to look at the marginal cost of purchasing a Model S, vs whatever car the high end of the market is buying anyway, AND subtract the spending on fuel.
We're saving $1571 per car per year. Tesla's prepaid replacement program is $12,000 (over ten years), which eats a big chunk of it, however we're also charging with cheap peak solar (the abundance of which is causing this issue to begin with), plus maintenance is cheaper.
BMW 5 series MSRPs are from $38k-68k. Taking the lower end of that, we're paying a $12k premium for a car with significantly lower maintenance costs and little to no fuel costs.
Could you get 5% of cars on the road taking that deal? I don't know. Today? Maybe, maybe not. But I do know that as the price of peak solar and battery technology falls, it will go from being a 'maybe' to a 'no brainer' over the next ten or fifteen years.
In any case, I may be wrong in my analysis. I'm merely presenting an argument for the way I see it. If you disagree on a specific point, I'd be happy to talk more about it, but nothing I wrote deserved your response.
Attacking them because they're "pie in the sky" frankly sounds like you're deliberately misinterpreting me, or at least you didn't bother reading the post.
Secondly, the scheme I'm proposing does not require any government subsidies. The money comes from selling the power back to the grid.
With my proposed figures - 5% EV ownership (63,752 cars), 40% battery usage sold back to the grid, you could reduce peak power usage by 15%. South Australia spent ~$990 million on electric power last year (not exact figures; based on 619k households from the census with an average spend of $1600).
Assuming 15% reduction in peak power is a 10% reduction in cost (which is reasonable, because capital costs and fixed running costs dominate electric spending expenses), that yields $99 million a year in savings.
The cost of 63,752 Model S cars is $3.1 billion. However, you have to look at the marginal cost of purchasing a Model S, vs whatever car the high end of the market is buying anyway, AND subtract the spending on fuel.
We're saving $1571 per car per year. Tesla's prepaid replacement program is $12,000 (over ten years), which eats a big chunk of it, however we're also charging with cheap peak solar (the abundance of which is causing this issue to begin with), plus maintenance is cheaper.
BMW 5 series MSRPs are from $38k-68k. Taking the lower end of that, we're paying a $12k premium for a car with significantly lower maintenance costs and little to no fuel costs.
Could you get 5% of cars on the road taking that deal? I don't know. Today? Maybe, maybe not. But I do know that as the price of peak solar and battery technology falls, it will go from being a 'maybe' to a 'no brainer' over the next ten or fifteen years.
In any case, I may be wrong in my analysis. I'm merely presenting an argument for the way I see it. If you disagree on a specific point, I'd be happy to talk more about it, but nothing I wrote deserved your response.