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And the reason is simple, it only took Facebook that long to go from 1 million to 1 billion users. It's successor will probably be able to do it in half that time. I bet we're only a couple years away from that eventuality.

It's possible, but the alternate hypothesis is that Facebook now has a sufficient number of users that network effects will keep those users locked in, provided that the company itself doesn't do anything ridiculously stupid.

Which will happen? I have no idea: the future is hard. But a plausible story can be spun in either direction.



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