It has 20m paid users and ~ 780m free users. The free users are not at all sticky and can and will bounce to a competitor. (What % of free users converted to paid in 2025? vs bounced?) That is not a moat. The 20m paid users in 2025 is up from 15.5m in 2024.
Forget about the free tier users, they'll disappear. All this jousting about numbers on the free tier sounds reminiscent of Sun Microsystems chirpily quoting "millions and billions of installed base" back in the Java wars, and even including embedded 8-bit controllers.
For people saying OpenAI could get to $100bn revenue, that would need
20m paid users x $5000/yr (~ the current Pro $200/mth tier), but it looks they must be discounting it currently. And that was before Anthropic undercut them on price. Or other competitors.
Free users are users. Google search is free, though ad monetized. But there's nothing stopping, and in fact they plan to monetize free users with ads.
>The free users are not at all sticky and can and will bounce to a competitor.
If you really believe this, that just shows how poor your understanding of the consumer LLM space is.
As it is, ChatGPT (the app) spends most of its compute on Non work messages (approx 1.9B per day vs 716 for Work)[0]. First, from ongoing conversations that users would return to, to the pushing of specific and past chat memories, these conversations have become increasingly personalized. Suddenly, there is a lot of personal data that you rely on it having, that make the product better. You cannot just plop over to Gemini and replicate this.
- for code-generation, OpenAI was overtaken by Anthropic
- your comment about lock-in for existing users only applies historically to existing users.
- Sora 2 is a major pivot that signals what segment OpenAI is/isn't targeting next: Scott Galloway was saying today it's not intended to be used by 99% of casual users; they're content consumers, only for content creators and studios.
- for code-generation, OpenAI was overtaken by Anthropic
And that's nice for them.
- your comment about lock-in for existing users only applies historically to existing users.
ChatGPT is the brand name for consumer LLM apps. They are getting the majority of new subscribers as well. Their competitors - Claude, Gemini are nowhere near. chatgpt.com is the 5th most visited site on the planet.
Perhaps for as long as the base tier remains free, ad-free, and burn $8+billion/year, and for as long as they can continue funding that with circular trades with public stocks such as this week's nVidia and AMD deals.
You're aware they already announced they'll add ads in 2026.
And the circular trades are already rattling public markets.
How do they monetize users on the base tier, to any extent? By adding e-commerce? And once they add ads how do they avoid that compromising the integrity of the product?
>How do they monetize users on the base tier, to any extent? By adding e-commerce? And once they add ads how do they avoid that compromising the integrity of the product?
Netflix introduced ads and it quickly became their most popular tier. The vast majority of people don't care about ads unless it's really obnoxious.
It has 20m paid users and ~ 780m free users. The free users are not at all sticky and can and will bounce to a competitor. (What % of free users converted to paid in 2025? vs bounced?) That is not a moat. The 20m paid users in 2025 is up from 15.5m in 2024.
Forget about the free tier users, they'll disappear. All this jousting about numbers on the free tier sounds reminiscent of Sun Microsystems chirpily quoting "millions and billions of installed base" back in the Java wars, and even including embedded 8-bit controllers.
For people saying OpenAI could get to $100bn revenue, that would need 20m paid users x $5000/yr (~ the current Pro $200/mth tier), but it looks they must be discounting it currently. And that was before Anthropic undercut them on price. Or other competitors.