METR measures tasks, not projects. No project I've worked on had individual tasks that were supposed to take longer than 2 weeks, the PM* broke them down to sub-tasks if they were any bigger.
* At least, where we had a PM. The places I was self-directed could arguably provide an interesting comparison.
- The length of tasks AI can complete doubles every ~7 months
- In 2-4 years, AIs could autonomously complete week-long projects.
- In under 10 years, they might handle month-long software or knowledge work.
[1] https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-com...