Here's 46% for 2030. It's had $350k in volume across the 4 markets. https://kals... | Hacker News

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		encroach 59 days ago \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work th... Here's 46% for 2030. It's had $350k in volume across the 4 markets. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoaiagi/openai-achieves-agi/oaia...

echoangle 59 days ago [–]

That’s also about OpenAI claiming they have AGI. That doesn’t resolve based on actual AGI.

tim333 59 days ago | [–]

I wonder if there is a test for AGI which is definite enough to bet on? My personal test idea is when you can send for a robot to come fix your plumbing rather than needing a human.

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