I think this can be summarized as “nobody knows but it might be very bad.” Mathematical models containing large uncertainties aren’t a crystal ball. They will likely be revised again.

You shouldn’t dismiss disaster scenarios since preparation for tail risks is important. But maybe don’t focus on them exclusively, either? It’s possible to keep multiple scenarios in mind, rather than focusing on one exclusively.

In California, there are wildfires, earthquakes, droughts, and (in some places) flooding to worry about, and this partly plays out via scarce and expensive property insurance.