AI is going to be so ubiquitous, something principled and open is going to supersede cuda at some point, as HTML5 did for Flash. CUDA isn't like an x86 vs ARM situation where they can use hardware dominance for decades, it's a higher level language, and being compatible with a wide range of systems benefits NVIDIA and their competitors. They're riding out their relative superiority for now, but we're going to see a standards and interoperability correction sometime soon, imo. NVIDIA will drive it, and it will gain them a few more years of dominance, but afaik nothing in their hardware IP means CUDA compatibility sacrifices performance or efficiency. They're also going to want to compete in the Chinese market, so being flexible about interoperability with their systems gains them a bit of market access that might otherwise be lost.
There's a ton of pressure on the market to decouple nvidia's proprietary software from literally everything important to AI, and they will either gracefully transition and control it, or it will reach a breaking point and someone else will do it for (and to) them. I'm sure they've got finance nerds and quants informing and minmaxing their strategy, so they probably know to the quarter when they'll pivot and launch their FOSS, industry leading standards narrative (or whatever the strategy is.)
> but we're going to see a standards and interoperability correction sometime soon, imo.
I thought this too, in 2015. OpenCL looked really promising, but Apple bailed and neither AMD nor Intel had the funding to keep up with Nvidia's research. It sorta floundered, even though Nvidia GPUs smugly ran OpenCL code with benchmark-leading performance.
Nvidia won the datacenter because of hardware. You could release a perfect CUDA-to-Vulkan translator tomorrow, and they still wouldn't be dethroned until better hardware replaced it. Intel is swirling the drain, Qualcomm is hedging their bets on mobile, AMD is (still) too underfunded - Apple is the only company with the design chops and TSMC inroads to be a serious threat, and they can't release a datacenter product to save their life. It's understandable why people think Nvidia is a monopoly, Team Green is pulling a full-on "Luigi wins by doing nothing" in 2025: https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/luigi-wins-by-doing-absolutel...
The market has almost no pressure to decouple from Nvidia - nobody else has mature solutions. It requires a preestablished player to make a similarly risky play, which might rule out everyone who's sitting at the table.
Uh, Flash died because Apple refused to support it on mobile Safari. Perhaps Flash would have died anyway, but that is the proximate cause. And Apple's competitors were falling over themselves to market Flash support as a competitive advantage vs. iPhone.
To rephrase the OP's point: transformers et al are worth trillions. All the other CUDA uses are worth tens or hundreds of billions. They've totally got that locked up, but researchers is a smaller market than video games.
