I think it's a cool perspective, but the not-so-hidden assumption is that for any given domain, the efficiency asymptote peaks well above the alternative.
And that really is the entire question at this point: Which domains will AI win in by a sufficient margin to be worth it?
> the not-so-hidden assumption is that for any given domain, the efficiency asymptote peaks well above the alternative
This is an assumption for the best-case scenario, but I think you could also just take the marginal case. Steady progress builds until you get past the state of the art system, and then the switch becomes easy to justify.
And that really is the entire question at this point: Which domains will AI win in by a sufficient margin to be worth it?