I dug around in the data the U.S. had prior to sending ICE into Minnesota:
Out of every 35,385 immigrants living in the United States, approximately 1 is an undocumented immigrant with a criminal record who lives in Minnesota.
Put another way: Minnesota's criminal undocumented immigrant population represents 0.0028% of all foreign-born residents in America.
Step 1: Start with Minnesota's undocumented population
• 130,000 undocumented immigrants live in Minnesota (Pew Research, 2023)
Step 2: Apply criminal conviction rate
• Using 1% criminal rate: 130,000 × 0.01 = 1,300 individuals
Step 3: Compare to total U.S. immigrant population
• 46,000,000 total foreign-born residents in the U.S.
• 1,300 ÷ 46,000,000 = 0.0028% = 1 in 35,385
The Range of Estimates
• Conservative Estimate: 1 in 45,365 (0.0022%)
Uses the empirically measured 0.78% conviction rate from peer-reviewed CATO Institute research on Texas undocumented immigrants.
~1,014 criminal undocumented immigrants in MN
• Moderate Estimate: 1 in 35,385 (0.0028%)
Uses a 1% criminal rate, which aligns with border apprehension data.
~1,300 criminal undocumented immigrants in MN
• Liberal Estimate: 1 in 32,168 (0.0031%)
Uses the 2024 border apprehension rate of 1.1% for those with prior criminal convictions.
~1,430 criminal undocumented immigrants in MN
Source References
Pew Research - National undocumented population (14M):
https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2025/08/21/u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-population-reached-a-record-14-million-in-2023
Pew/Axios - Minnesota undocumented population (130k):
https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2025/08/25/minnesota-unauthorized-immigrant-population-pew
USAFacts - Border criminal conviction rates (~1%):
https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-people-apprehended-at-us-borders-have-a-prior-criminal-conviction/country/united-states/
CATO Institute - Conviction rate research (0.78%):
https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/2020-10/working-paper-60.pdf
Migration Policy Institute - Total U.S. foreign-born (46M):
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/content/immigrants-and-crime
USAFacts - Minnesota immigrant data:
https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-immigrants-are-in-the-us/state/minnesota/
Bottom line: Depending on which criminal rate you use, Minnesota's criminal undocumented immigrant population represents between 1 in 32,000 and 1 in 45,000 of all immigrants living in America.
