It’s a deliberate “pressure valve.” China tolerates access for productivity but retains a kill switch for sensitive periods: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/how-...

NO.

They can do unconditional blocking at any moment and suddenly you can experience Internet blackout. [1]

The censorship from GFW is ever evolving. See the endless cat-and-mouse games yourself. [2][3]

[1] https://github.com/net4people/bbs/issues/511

[2] https://github.com/net4people/bbs/issues?q=is%3Aissue+state%...

[3] https://gfw.report/en/

The question is what do you win when found using VPN?

There is pretty much no risk. It’s expected you will use a VPN, you can talk about it openly in public.

Now, if you’re doing something unrelated that the administration doesn’t like, you can expect VPN use to be included in the long list of charges.

You phone and computer will be checked thoroughly using automated tools. If they didn't find any sensitive keyword, you'll be fined and recorded in the system. If they find something, a detention for at least 3 days or ... forever.

That's the standard procedure. But polices in developed areas usually treat them like antragsdelikte(no trial without a complaint).

Depending on where you are, “everybody I know who grew up in China” may not be an unbiased sample w.r.t. ideology, forthcomingness, or truth-telling.

"bypass restrictions" meaning put on a list of people to closely watch.

I guess by "Everybody I know who grew up in China" you mean those elites who speaks English and have already bypassed restrictions to talk to you online or travels to other countries. There's some selection bias here.

Apparently they use traffic analysis now so it's difficult to bypass even with VPNs.