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In the sense that someone is manipulating the real world to make money in the prediction markets? Otherwise it's just like options.


No, in the sense that he people who set oil prices and government policy alike can trade in those prediction markets. I'm all for the markets, very democratic and libertarian (not that I'm one), but policy makers, executives and other people from whom a conflict of interest by a prediction market translates into disaster for real people should be restricted from participating in these markets.


OK. So I think your answer is actually a yes?

In this case however you can pretty much do the same thing with other financial instruments like future contract on oil. Either way, I agree decision makers shouldn't be allowed to trade (and I think are forbidden in most countries).


You can do the same with proper financial instruments, but there are insider trading laws that prevent those people with insider knowledge from profiting, but these markets have no such restrictions.


Are you sure insider trading laws do not apply? I'd be surprised.


I'm certain, they only apply to securities.




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