"It's a foregone conclusion".. ?? Because of Nate Silver's statistical analysis of polls? The polls which themselves are flawed. The "statistics" are based on nothing but polls, all with margins of errors and varied methodology. A sample of 1000 people can hardly predict an entire state, because there are many factors that influence turnout that aren't captured in polls. Being the subject of a poll is generally a passive activity -- they come to you, while going to vote is an active activity. "Likely voters" is a very subjective term and thus a difficult thing to quantify.
> The "statistics" are based on nothing but polls, all with margins of errors and varied methodology.
Sure, but if the methodology is standard and the poll shows 60%/40% with a 3% margin of error, you can safely bet money on the outcome. Statistics works just as well for casinos; they may lose in the long run, but they almost certainly won't.
> "Likely voters" is a very subjective term and thus a difficult thing to quantify.
Stats can be used to determine the likelihood that those being polled will actually vote.
