Worse, it is simply unrealistic no matter how competent you are. Conspiracy theories always hinge on highly improbable conditions to hold or require someone have fantastical abilities.
Right, even if both governments/leaders were competent, that would have been way to hard to engineer volontarily. I will keep assuming ego and delusions.
quite good for China to better understand US military capabilities
maybe good for Trump if he wants to come up with excuses to fully size government power / avoid or fake mid term elections or even "just" frighten voters that if the a government change happens now it will be "very bad" for the US etc.
bad for the US (both as a supper power and for it's citizens)
and if escalating (which seems very likely) potentially far worse for Europe, Turkey and likely some other places because the refuge wave this can cause is one a completely different level then the one by Syria (like >4x times as bad if worst comes to worst, 1)
simple put for all those who want to destroy democracy in the west this is grate in many ways.
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1: Syria had ~21 Mil citizens before the war, Iran has ~92 Mil + 9 Mil refuges from Afghanistan + others. In general Iran is the land wich currently houses the largest number of refuges AFIK. If thinks go bad this are the people which often will have to flee first. To make matters worse there is a ongoing drinking water crisis, even without a ware or destroyed desalination plants Iran might need to evacuate Tehran (~10 Mil).
It doesn't add up at all, the cost of oil is just one metric and so far the prices are still lower than the last administration's self-inflicted high oil prices that we had just a few short years ago. Obviously the price of oil isn't the whole story.
Also Iran had been supplying Russia with a lot of parts for drones. Now they can't, making Ukraine's victory more likely than before.
Four years ago the world was coming out of covid and supply chains were screwed for years. Much of the inflation was not due to any particular policy, but just fallout from what COVID did to world markets.
The reasons for high oil prices now are a completely different cause.
but Trump also now has a excuse to abandon Ukraine,
and a excuse to lifte trade Embargos on Russian Oil (he already did)
this might still not change the outcome of the war, but might still be more useful then drone parts in the sense that if you either don't have money to buy drone parts or the seller stops selling you are better of with money?
and maybe he hopes for a Iranian terrorist attack before the midterms so that he can use that as an excuse to not have proper Election (Iran using terrorism for retaliation when other means fail isn't exactly new, so this isn't even that unlikely and a iff we assume he or the people consulting him really are that evil, then a false flag attack is also an option.)
If there's any constant across the political spectrum, it is that Putin is some kind of magical wizard. The only difference of opinion is whether he's a good wizard or bad one.
The US attacking one of Russia's only remaining allies, and one of their biggest arms dealers, is a backdoor effort to help Russia? How does that even make sense? I really think people should log off for a while and actual evaluate what they are saying instead of listening to totally online grifters.
Could this help Russia in the very short term? Sure, does it mostly hurt them in the long run? Probably a lot more so, assuming the regime were to actually fall especially (feels like it's not going to at this point.)
The US not being able to control their strait also shows China just how difficult controlling the "South China Sea" would be in the event of an invasion of Taiwan. Which is just a stupid coincidence.
They're common because they're probably less weird than reality, which is seemingly "there's no consistent or clear official reason for doing these things"
If conspiracy exists, it's not US, just single person so ewhere at the top. If leverage exists, it might not dictate every move, just enough to help out the strategic direction.
Look up General Wesley Clark's seven countries in five years YouTube video. This was the plan all along, Trump has nothing fundamental to do with it, he was just willing to pull the trigger.
Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and lastly Iran
They saw the opportunity with Iran weakened, their proxies were knocked down, and Israel was fully mobilized.
