Doesn't need to be general semicondustor manufacturing. Just RAM will do it. And that would spell the end for Micron and maybe Hynix. Samsung is sufficiently diversified.
The point is that new entrants are less likely to play the cartel game as they have been excluded and would rather cash in on the business opportunity of making and selling as much as they can.
Pray China figures out semiconductor manufacturing at scale. Of course, that will spell the end for <redacted>.