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Yes, sure. I've mined, and even mined for a bit at an occasional loss after hitting punitive over-baseline electric rates).

But it's farfetched to predict that everyone who was willing to do something when the bitcoin reward was X will still be willing to do it, in the exact same amount, when the reward is reduced to X/2. (Even if the goal is 'anonymous bitcoins' at above-market rates, they've still become twice as costly.) Demand curves slope down, supply curves slope up, exceptions are rare and not in evidence here.



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