I think you would be surprised I think Tesla's strategy has three stages.
1) Niche high cost vehicle sold in low volumes(Roadster)
2) Medium cost luxury vehicle sold in medium volumes(Model S)
3) Low cost high volume vehicle sold in high volumes. (Model ???)
Obviously this is a gross over simplification but I imagine that part of the engineering that is going on at TESLA is figuring out how to build 3 cheaper and at a higher quality then anybody else.
I am aware of their strategy, I just worry that the big automakers with their massive distribution and infrastructures already in place could easily come in and be 10 steps ahead of Tesla and provide a vehicle that isn't as sexy but has the same appeal to the electric car market. I could be overestimating their ability to innovate after so many years of sitting on the same old tired technology, but something tells me that they'd be willing to step up if it means they are going to be completely left in the dust of a tiny (by comparison) company.
> I just worry that the big automakers with their massive distribution and infrastructures already in place could easily come in and be 10 steps ahead of Tesla and provide a vehicle that isn't as sexy but has the same appeal to the electric car market.
I really doubt this. This is the classic innovators dilemma. The investments in electric don't look good enough yet for the car companies to go "all in". Their entire supply chain is built around making and selling cars that run on gas engines. Tesla isn't beholden to any kind of entrenched thinking and thus can build up an advantage here that is going to take the big car companies a while to catch up to once electric cars go mainstream. (http://dl.dropbox.com/u/120/Screenshots/innovators_dilemma_c...)
"the big automakers ... could easily come in and be 10 steps ahead of Tesla and provide a vehicle that isn't as sexy but has the same appeal to the electric car market"
Aren't they already trying to do that? Chevy's Volt, Nissan's Leaf, Ford apparently makes a fully PEV Focus now, as does Honda with a version of the Fit, and Toyota's gotta be working on the Prius...
What Tesla has done is made an electric car and marketed it as more luxurious and different from what's on the market. The Leaf is for hippies, the Volt is nowhere to be seen. The Tesla on the other hand is sexy.
A bigger concern is how Tesla will expand from this market. For most manufacturers, the high-end cars are not the major money-makers, and the quantities they move are just too small (Lexus sells over 8 IS/GS for each LS they sell). We'll see if they manage to expand from the niche they're in.
The Tesla on the other hand is sexy. A bigger concern is how Tesla will expand from this market.
The Nissan Leaf just isn't a good deal. If Tesla can beat range anxiety in a package that costs $20k or less, then they'll have a winner. Sexy still sells with econobox cars. (Fiat 500?)
> with their massive distribution and infrastructures
That is a disadvantage. Along with their size that represents massive costs and massive inertia.
The actual threat from incumbents is regulation(lobbying for) and legal. Both of which they can afford due to massive size and have established the "infrastructure" for.
Well, Ford and Toyota are buying electric drivetrains from Tesla to put into their electric vehicles. The big automakers are easily able to match Tesla just by buying Tesla's parts, which Tesla is more than willing to sell them.
The simple answer is they'll make a Model S but smaller, but that might be dependent on battery tech improving so they can fit the batteries into the reduced space. FWIW the Model S is at a reasonably decent price for what it is, and I don't think they're too worried about going mass market until the market is ready in terms of infrastructure, acceptance etc.
1) Niche high cost vehicle sold in low volumes(Roadster)
2) Medium cost luxury vehicle sold in medium volumes(Model S)
3) Low cost high volume vehicle sold in high volumes. (Model ???)
Obviously this is a gross over simplification but I imagine that part of the engineering that is going on at TESLA is figuring out how to build 3 cheaper and at a higher quality then anybody else.