Viable scenario: a state-organized effort perpetrated solely thru data networks shuts down a nation's entire power grid (electric, gas, etc.), and in a manner where re-activation thereof will be slow & expensive (transformers blown, gas pipes ruptured, etc.) with extensive major civilian consequences (dominating digital economy offline, health/rescue services disrupted/overwhelmed, traffic congestion skyrockets, etc.). Think Stuxnet for the electric company. The perpetrator is identified.
Variation: this is detected beforehand, but very little time remains (hours/minutes) before "detonation". Polite diplomatic channels are in no way fast enough. The cyber-attack is traced to 10,000 malware-hijacked PCs in a handful of concentrated residential neighborhoods.
Too many variables uncounted for in the second scenario. For example, do we know what is going to be targeted and through what method it would be attacked? How many legitimate users need web access to this critical service?
Assuming that knowledge, there's plenty that could be done if we have forewarning. Take those neighborhoods offline at the ISP level. Alternately, block the zombie IP ranges via firewall at the receiving end.
I think the real danger is that we won't have such forewarning, and in the slim chance we did we won't have that crucial knowledge(what specifically is the target and attack vector?).
Variation: this is detected beforehand, but very little time remains (hours/minutes) before "detonation". Polite diplomatic channels are in no way fast enough. The cyber-attack is traced to 10,000 malware-hijacked PCs in a handful of concentrated residential neighborhoods.
Discuss.