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See what happened in Ukraine's neighboring country, Moldova, 24 years ago: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_Transnistria

Moldova had a population of ethnic Russians that lived on the Eastern bank of the river D'niest'r. (Similar to the Crimean region in Ukraine.)

Eventually a civil war broke out, and Russia stepped in to back the ethnically Russian region (sound familiar?). The end result was a stalemate. A ceasefire was declared in 1992, and the ethnically Russian region decided to spin off its own government. They call themselves Pre'd'niest'rovia (or Transnistria), and function as an entirely separate country from Moldova. That means different language (Russian, not Moldovan), currency, parliament, military, etc etc. Yet Moldova never accepted it as a sovereign country, and neither did the rest of the world.

To this day, when you see Moldova on a map you only see one country where really there are two.

What's happening in Ukraine today is almost a mirror image. I suspect it will result either in a similar two-country situation with one being unrecognized, or the Eastern half of Ukraine will form a new country.

PS - I was born in Transnistria and lived there until I was eight. Several months ago I went to visit for the first time since leaving 18 years ago. It's a miserable place to live. I also visited Kiev and Odessa (Ukraine) on the same trip, and am glad I did so before this violence broke out.



That would actually an optimistic scenario. More pessimistic one would be if you notice Putin got approval to use Russian military in Ukraine, not just in Crimea. Which means he can also use it it Kharkov, Donetsk, Lugansk and other places where there is a majority Russian population. And try to split Ukraine along language-ethnic lines and destroy it as an independent state as a punishment for defying them. Note that any success of new Ukrainian powers spells trouble for Putin, as it means one can defeat the authoritarian rulers and succeed, while the official position is that the authoritarian rule is the only defense against chaos. So Putin would be very invested in causing the said chaos in Ukraine, both as a revenge, as means of control and to support the idea that his rule must be strong - otherwise see what happened to Ukrainians. So just having Crimea separate, as I say, would not be the worst yet.


I agree. I meant to suggest that the whole eastern half would form a new country, not just the Crimea.


Indeed. This could get arbitrarily ugly; I was ... disconcerted to see a still of a network video titled "Russian Tanks in the Ukraine" ... that actually showed self-propelled artillery, which means nothing good.


I once stumbled upon this youtube about Transnistria: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6kub-Ehbd4 Really fascinating, I had never even heard of the place. They really make it seem like the country is dependent on black market arms deals of former Soviet stock. Is it actually true?


It runs almost entirely on black market dealings (weapons, human sex slaves) and criminal enterprises. It's often called "the black hole" of Europe. It's very difficult to live there.


A great documentary. Thanks.



Same thing happened in Serbia in 1999. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo

Only in this case it was NATO who invaded, and it is viewed quite differently from the western media then what parents have cited.

The worst thing in world today is to become the rope on which the imperial forces tug to prove their strength.


> The worst thing in world today is to become the rope on which the imperial forces tug to prove their strength.

Not just today -- it's been a shitty position to find oneself in since the beginning of time. The only difference today is that we think of ourselves as above such things. But clearly we're not.



Big difference. Serbians under Milosevic were committing mass murder and ethnic cleansing (as they had done with Bosnia and Croatia few years earlier), while here, Ukrainians are not kicking people from Crimea out.

This is just a land grab.


>Ukrainians are not kicking people from Crimea out.

Not yet. Still, the first act of the new regime was to revoke language rights from ethnic minorities, i.e. Russians in Crimea. When this sort of thing happens, ethnic cleansing is not far away.


That's one ridiculous exaggeration. Did you even read the law you are talking about, or you are just repeating somebody else's propaganda? The law was actually criticized by Ukrainian minorities -- by Crimean Tatars [1], by Association of Jewish Organizations and Communities of Ukraine[2], by Congress of Ethnic Communities of Ukraine [3]. But the most important detail -- the law in fact wasn't repealed! Acting president already vetoed its repeal.

[1] http://www.unian.ua/society/669726-progolosovaniy-zakon-pro-...

[2] http://www.vaadua.org/news/zayavlenie-vaada-ukrainy-po-povod...

[3] http://old.kngu.org/kngu%20news%202012/Zayava%20Ch.html


This law does not affect Crimea as Autonomous Republic of Crimea has its own constitution, and Russian language is used as an official since 1998.


Kosovo seems a much better example although I don't understand why NATO was able to enter the war against the wishes of Russia. Maybe nothing major happened because Serbia was sort of a Russian puppet state instead of being Russia itself? Or the lack of interesting resources in Kosovo? I have some remembering to do.

By the way, while reading about Kosovo's history yesterday, I noticed how beautiful Pristina's National Public Library looked: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/65/Biblotek...


It was in 1999, when Russian strength and morale (political, economic and military) was at it's nadir. Compare the two wars in Chechnya with the war in Georgia.


Unless you subscribe to an extreme pan Slavophilism, in which the Balkans are legally and morally Russian territory, then no, Russia had nothing to say in the Balkans.


Not Russian territory but under Soviet (and then Russian) influence. No?



Ah, this is very interesting, thanks for the eye-opening link! It actually might explain my previous questions about Kosovo.


Sarajevo was also a beautiful city until the Orthodox Serbs destroyed it.


Seriously? Leaving out some details there, aren't you? Like Srebrenica?


I think the circumstances surrounding the conflict in Kosovo paint a starkly different picture from what's going on in Ukraine.


And by "same thing" you mean that Georgia started an invasion of South Ossetia and then forced to retreat when Russian forces counter-attacked?


I wouldn't say it's the same as the number of Russians living in South Ossetia was and is really small (2 to 3%?). There are some similarities but even the way the war started seems different from what's happening in Ukraine. But it's useful context to have though.


Do they still hear artillery shots there in daily life?


Not anymore. The ceasefire has held reasonably well. The "border" between Transnistria and the rest of Moldova has a demilitarized zone, protected by (drumroll please...) Russian "peace" troops.


It looks really a scary place


> different language (Russian, not Moldovan)

The official language of the Republic of Moldova is Romanian[1].

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Moldova


Yes, but many people in Moldova call the language they speak 'Moldovan', even if it's only subtly different from Romanian.

When given the option in a 2004 census, 60% of the population chose 'Moldovan' as their native language, compared to 16.5% who chose 'Romanian'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moldovan_language


In 2004 the Communists were in power in Republic of Moldova.

But in December 2013 Moldovan court rules official language is 'Romanian,' replacing Soviet-flavored 'Moldovan':

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/12/05/moldovan-court-rules...

Just as there is no 'Austrian language', is German only. Or 'Switzerland language', is German, French and Italian.

Edit: Of course there is heavy dialect or accent of the language in Switzerland and Austria, but I was talking about high language.


Swiss German is a real thing and quite different from high German.


Sure, we can argue about Italian dialects varieties, but in fact all are the same language: Italian.


Italy is not a good example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_Italy

There are languages and dialects here that are incomprehensible to a native Italian speaker.


What would linguists say if, for political reasons, Swiss German starts being called simply "Swiss"?


I guess that French and Italian speaking Swiss people would have a veto on this ;-)


JFTR: Austrian German is a protected language within the EU.


Sure, they can call it however they want. Technically they're the same language. There are only minor lexicographical differences, the grammar being roughly the same. Blame Stalin for the confusion.


Technically, they're different, which makes the question of whether they should have a different name a political one, not a linguistic one. As the saying goes, a language is a dialect with an army and a navy.


No, technically there is just Romanian language. The difference is purely ideological/political. If the U.S.S.R. have had more ambitious plans for Germans, there would have been more names out there for the same German language. Or for any other language for that matter.


Canada has an army and a navy, yet it doesn't call its official languages Canadian and Canadien.


The argument over Moldovan being a seperate language was promoted by Stalin, but the argument also predates Stalin by a century, so I am not sure he is to blame for this particular thing. Everything else, sure.




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