Interesting report! Did you weight in this - the bad developers are most likely to interview many times, so they appear often to you? Talents either get advised into a new job or stay where they are, because many shops know they are valuable, I'd think.
> Did you weight in this - the bad developers are most likely to interview many times..
Which implies, almost by definition, that they will become much better at the process over time and eventually become very good at gaming it, therefore making it even less reliable.