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Peak conventional oil was reached in 2005. World production of liquid oil is already steadily falling and will never again reach its peak. Synthetic and deep water and rock and tar to oil conversion processes have kept total world production steady since then and refinery efficiencies have been stepped up to produce more motor fuel, but increasingly expensive and heroic extraction is necessary to keep all that up. Prices have been rising and will continue to rise. The lower prices this year are unsustainable as they are now below marginal cost of production.

And peak helium is linked tightly to peak natural gas, because that's how helium is obtained. It's a byproduct of natural gas. When natural gas production falls in the next few decades, He will do the same.

Of course, we can always extract He from the atmosphere. Unlike oil, it renews itself -- contrary to op's implication -- from underground radiation and solar wind. it won't ever get much more expensive than neon.



The relentless fall in U.S. labor force participation will continue to cause reduced economy activity, which can explain why the price of oil was quite constant from 2010-2014:

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000




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