Does anyone envision a scenario where OpenAI or Anthropic (or google) disappears?
I can understand the investment bubble in new infra. But even that, I’m not so sure. Right now, demand is so far outstripping supply, which is why we’re having so many conversations about energy or chips.
But yes that’s the bubble people keep talking about.
You seem to be one of those silly people who conflate antisemitism with disliking how the state of Israel behaves under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu.
"Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition...There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect."
I'm quite aware of the origin, but I appreciate you posting the link for others' edification.
For one with less confusion about the speaker: "For my friends everything, for my enemies the law." --Oscar R. Benavides, President of Peru from 1933 to 1939
The weird part isn't that a socialist got elected mayor of New York. The weird part is that the Democratic party didn't have anyone better to primary him out of the nomination.
The two-party system seems pretty cooked at this point.
Personally I find that quote tired and trite. But so-called "conservatives" could certainly stand to clear up the matter by articulating what their constructive political stances actually are these days - that is beyond merely vice signalling, performative cruelty, and a cult of personality around Dear Leader.
As a libertarian, I certainly have my problems with the progressive orthodoxy. But every time I've tried to work out current conservative principles, by generally appealing to what they claim to be, I've basically just gotten a brush off of why those traditional ideals are not applicable and then a bunch of whataboutism to justify why they have to kill our society to purportedly save it.
TBF Trump isn't a conservative. He's a populist that overthrew the Republican party without firing a single shot and the "conservatives" are all too busy running around in circles to do something about him.
Sure, I agree and I've made similar arguments. But there are still throngs of people self-identifying as conservative and considering Trump conservative. The best I've been able to surmise is that to them, "conservative" merely means in line with the reactionary talk radio of the past several decades, and that anger has replaced all of their ideals.
This is kind of understandable, because that reactionary talk radio was always a form of managed dissent. They kept getting tricked by it, and as communications democratized they somewhat realized this (hence the whole RINO thing). But as usual they're unable to see the larger overall picture, and so direct blame at whomever scapegoats their new info-bubble managers point at.
While I think one party started it back in the '90s, both parties are mostly 2-minute hate daily talking point driven at this point.
I don't think that bodes well for our geopolitical competitiveness in the long run. And you can already see it in the irrational hatred of renewables on the right and the irrational hatred of AI on the left. Meanwhile, enough of the rest of the world has better things to do that we seem destined to become a geopolitical NPC.
While the Democratic party has strongly embraced the 2-minute hate in much of their propaganda, I do not think the both sidesism is warranted. The point is that Republicans have taken their 2-minute hate dynamic of the past several decades, and retconned that anger as the entirety of their policy platform. Whereas Democratic leaders are still trying for constructive policies that abide by their own ideals. We can criticize those ideals, and criticize their policies for failing to live up to those ideals, yes. But their platform doesn't revolve around overtly harming the country with the idea that the other tribe will be harmed more.
As for the "irrational hatred" of "AI", isn't that what laying the groundwork for controlled opposition and regulatory capture looks like? There have been serious problems from lack of business accountability and responsiveness, now exacerbated by AI. But pigeonholing it all into an "AI bad" narrative is basically setting up to defeat any specific reforms.
My take on the democrats at this point is they are the party of learned helplessness. And that's just as harmful as the party of nihilism when they both drop their differences to block the emergence of new voices and new parties.
But I agree they have become the useful idiots for regulatory capture. The right's hatred of renewables is just stupid.
Learned helplessness is not as harmful as nihilism. Learned helplessness has lead to inaction and ineffectiveness, which has at least allowed for stability. Whereas nihilism has led to lashing out, which is quite destructive.
Learned helplessness is just another term for complicit IMO. I'm reminded of the streaming media people whining about licensing terms rather than taking responsibility for their poor job at negotiating with the studios and other holders of media.
if these supposed elected representatives can't take the responsibilities of their jobs and they just want the perks, they need to resign to make room for someone better. Not holding my breath there.
I don't know if much useful can come out of speaking purely in platitudes. I agree there is a lot of blame to be laid at the feet of the Democratic party. But it's important to not lose sight of the larger picture where the Republican party took the status quo of both parties being similarly bad, as an opportunity to become even worse.
The secret is that their racism and bigotry is more important to them than their conservative "values".
See also: the success of the "Southern Strategy" in converting racists in the southern US from Democratic to Republican voters, taking advantage of the Democratic Party's focus on civil rights.
As long as Trump keeps hurting the people they don't like, they'll continue to support him.
I used to think this was deep, but it equally applies to progressivism as well as well as a range of human institutions. It's a restatement the basic observation that humans are prone to in-group bias. What's really dangerous is that some refuse to see the same flaw within themselves and instead always ascribe it to "the other".
Why are you asking a token generator to explain its prior output?
You are proceeding from a false premise. You are not getting an explanation of its prior output. You are getting a series of tokens that forms a response to your query, same as it did for the initial answer. Now you've asked it why it's wrong, so the text conforms to that request, but that doesn't change the fundamental nature of the software you're interacting with.
This is your mistake right here. It doesn't think. It's a text generator. It can no more think about what year it is than Swiftkey on your phone "thinks" what year it is when you type
I'm as bearish as anyone on the current AI hype, but this particular ship has sailed. Research is revealing these humongous neural networks of weights for next token prediction to exhibit underlying structures that seem to map in some way to a form of knowledge about the world that is, however imperfectly, extracted from all the text they're trained on.
Arguing that this is meaningfully different from what happens in our own brains is not something I would personally be comfortable with.
> Research is revealing these humongous neural networks of weights for next token prediction to exhibit underlying structures that seem to map in some way to a form of knowledge about the world that is
[[citation needed]]
I am sorry but I need exceptionally strong proof of that statement. I think it is totally untrue.
> Why are you asking a token generator to explain its prior output?
I swear I'm not. I'm trying to get it to fix the bug. I know it's a stateless slop generator, but I need it to be an obedient stateless slop generator.
The "magic words" I'm trying to come up with are whatever will prompt it to see the bug at all. I've tried standing instructions demanding that it simply not ever question me about whether a bug I've mentioned exists, because I'd rather it "fix" a bug that doesn't exist (so it can fail fast and I can realize I'm the dumb one) than fall into this loop of trying to argue it into doing what I say.
edit: that tactic does not work, even with much repetition, all caps, and many exclamation points. Eventually the instructions read like I'm having a mental breakdown.
You still seem to be expecting some degree of thought and understanding from these tools.
They generate tokens. The output has a probabilistic relationship to the established context and prompts, plus whatever prompting is happening as you interact with the model.
There is no understanding of "don't do [thing]". Sometimes, you can get something closer to what you wanted by putting stuff like that in the prompt. But it's still probabilistic token generation. It's not interpreting that as a literal command to not do the thing. It has that command in its context now, and maybe that changes the output. Maybe it changes in a useful direction, maybe it doesn't. But it's not going to be treated as a literal command because the model does not have the capability to do so. Phrasing it differently doesn't change the fundamentals.
My conclusion is AI will usher in a revolution in the way work will be done, and you need to get on board and stop resisting this new industrial revolution. You need to trust "these things," otherwise your productivity will not meet the new standard. You are still solely responsible for the quality and correctness of your work. Have a nice day!
Productive how? Summarising pre-prepared text is about the only thing it can be trusted with. It can't even auto-transcribe meetings correctly, at all.
Maybe generating garbage scaffolding that would need completely rewritings anyway could be useful for people that suffer from analysis paralysis.
I think this AI productivity thing is mostly a myth. Currently.
I guess AI is productive in the artistic fields but I personally am repulsed by anything that looks like it was generated with AI. I think it's a disaster for humanity, all in the name of not wanting to pay creative people for creative output.
I can't tell if this is satire or not, but if not, you really are putting a lot on the line with these bold claims..
Where you see some kind of "Revolution", I see "regression".. Future years of inexperienced juniors, saddled with exponential tech debt from an AI slop generator that middle management is directing.
The US federal government is now a mob-style organization. The laws, rules, and regulations that are written down are only applicable as far as Trump and those around him want them to be. Loyalty to the boss is the only inviolable rule.
In other words, if they want to put ads into chat, they just need to be perceived as well aligned to Trump to avoid any actual punishment.
> Abbott’s and Musk’s lawyers fought their release, arguing they would reveal trade secrets, potentially “intimate and embarrassing” exchanges or confidential legal and policymaking discussions
Maybe, just maybe, you shouldn't have used your government email account to have intimate and embarrassing exchanges? That thought come to mind, Mr. Abbott?
Yeah, this is something people think is super easy to automate, and it is for the most basic implementation of something like a single test runner. The most basic implementation is prone to false positives, and as you say, breaking when the rest of your stuff breaks.
You can put your test runner on different infrastructure, and now you have a whole new class of false positives to deal with. And it costs you a bit more because you're probably paying someone for the different infra.
You can put several test runners on different infrastructure in different parts of the world. This increases your costs further. The only truly clear signals you get from this are when all are passing or all are failing. Any mixture of passes and fails has an opportunity for misinterpretation. Why is Sydney timing out while all the others are passing? Is that an issue with the test runner or its local infra, or is there an internet event happening (cable cut, BGP hijack, etc) beyond the local infra?
And thus nearly everyone has a human in the loop to interpret the test results and make a decision about whether to post, regardless of how far they've gone with automation.
Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush and all that.
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