It doesn't have to happen with (a lot of) violence. The final denouncement of the Soviet Union was fantastically non-violent compared to what just about everyone expected.
But authoritarian regimes like the PRC's aren't very stable, they have legitimacy problems, succession problems, sooner or latter they tend to "tumble down".
The very fact that the ruling class is spending so much effort keeping a lid on things by continuing to build the Great Firewall of China (with all its collateral damage as we're discussing here), preventing any alternative forms of civil society from getting big (organized religion, Falun Gong ... are there even Chamber's of Commerce that are independent of the government???) tells us important things.
And then there are the looming demographic issues. The One-Child Policy is leading to a nasty 4-2-1 generational aging---4 grandparents have 2 parents who have 1 child ... to support all the parents---and a nasty male to female ratio imbalance. Who's going to support those parents in their old age? Who are those unmatched 10s of millions of men going to marry? What happens if one or neither of those problems get solved?
Energy doesn't seem to be a big problem for the PRC (is the Earth about to run out of coal, uranium, etc.?). Pollution ... well, wealth and the rule of law are what solved it in the developed nations. We'll see how the wealth game continues in the PRC, but I don't see any possibility of a sudden outbreak of the rule of law.
But authoritarian regimes like the PRC's aren't very stable, they have legitimacy problems, succession problems, sooner or latter they tend to "tumble down".
The very fact that the ruling class is spending so much effort keeping a lid on things by continuing to build the Great Firewall of China (with all its collateral damage as we're discussing here), preventing any alternative forms of civil society from getting big (organized religion, Falun Gong ... are there even Chamber's of Commerce that are independent of the government???) tells us important things.
And then there are the looming demographic issues. The One-Child Policy is leading to a nasty 4-2-1 generational aging---4 grandparents have 2 parents who have 1 child ... to support all the parents---and a nasty male to female ratio imbalance. Who's going to support those parents in their old age? Who are those unmatched 10s of millions of men going to marry? What happens if one or neither of those problems get solved?
Energy doesn't seem to be a big problem for the PRC (is the Earth about to run out of coal, uranium, etc.?). Pollution ... well, wealth and the rule of law are what solved it in the developed nations. We'll see how the wealth game continues in the PRC, but I don't see any possibility of a sudden outbreak of the rule of law.