Postman's book is now 32 years old! I read it as a teenager, which dates me...
I'm not sure about the Amusing Ourselves To Death stuff or the tut-tutting about cooking and gardening, but overall, though, I think you're on the right track. I'm sure that between automation of both manufacturing and services, big-box retailers and the fact that the covering of the 'long tail' is done very well by web-based business. It's hard to picture what a lot of people are going to be able to do in this circumstance and there seems to be the real potential for a cascading unpleasantness.
If you even half-believe the 'technological unemployment' worry, the scary part is that the non-automatable jobs that involved providing goods and services to those displaced by technology will also suffer.
There may be plenty of spare time for people to have that 'great awakening', whatever that might turn out to be.
two examples of many, admittedly probably too personal. Others: technology obsolescence, and the move toward not actually OWNing anything so nothing to learn to repair.
>>If you even half-believe the 'technological unemployment' worry, the scary part is that the non-automatable jobs that involved providing goods and services to those displaced by technology will also suffer.
Yes... My context is now that as a parent, I'm seeing windows closing for the kids' future that I had. I mean programming (maybe; I hope) and robot repair will be very lucrative. So will professions like plumbing and electricians.
I feel the 'parent context' too. I have kids old enough to be thinking more seriously about what they want to do when they group up (i.e. early teens) and it's difficult to know what to tell them. I suspect that many of the hopefully lucrative paths you mentioned will be things that gets more and more 'sealed' and routinized (i.e. robot repair == "remove broken assembly, put in new assembly, send broken assembly to factory in low-cost geo for salvage/repair").
It's not all doom and gloom, of course, and I think it's important to maintain a positive outlook esp. in front of one's kids when talking about this stuff. And of course, the growing helplessness and screen addiction of many of their peers suggests that in competitive terms, finding and holding a good job might be easier and easier (which isn't very encouraging overall, but appeals to the "amoral familism" streak I occasionally get).
I'm not sure about the Amusing Ourselves To Death stuff or the tut-tutting about cooking and gardening, but overall, though, I think you're on the right track. I'm sure that between automation of both manufacturing and services, big-box retailers and the fact that the covering of the 'long tail' is done very well by web-based business. It's hard to picture what a lot of people are going to be able to do in this circumstance and there seems to be the real potential for a cascading unpleasantness.
If you even half-believe the 'technological unemployment' worry, the scary part is that the non-automatable jobs that involved providing goods and services to those displaced by technology will also suffer.
There may be plenty of spare time for people to have that 'great awakening', whatever that might turn out to be.