> Manufacturing, refining, and AI improvements are going to reduce the price of batteries by another 90%
This is a pipe dream. Battery demand will be astronomical for decades to come. That means ramping up supply and prioritising deployment via price signals.
> it is the demand for batteries that will make them cheap
This isn’t how supply and demand work. Demand can induce scale efficiencies in production, which lowers costs. That’s what’s happening in your link, which tracks through 2018.
In 2019, electric car sales shares rose globally and non-linearly [1]. We persist on that path. As a result, battery costs are spiking [2][3].
It is exactly how supply and demand works, lithium refiners are making huge profits, which causes more investment in refining capabilities which unlocks larger economies of scale.
If you don't understand this please just circle back to this thread in 5 years, and I can show you what actually happened.
Replacing the most expensive form of power plant (and mind you, only the most expensive ones out of that class) at a quantity much lower than is needed to actually replace them, with serious supply constraints.
Batteries today are replacing peaker plants that run on things like refined gasoline, which are extremely expensive to run.
Battery + renewable is still not anywhere near cost competitive with base load plants, which is the honest comparison to make.
That is incorrect, "The International Energy Agency recently predicted that solar power would become “the cheapest source of electricity in history,” and a report by Carbon Tracker found that 90 percent of the global population lives in places where new renewable power would be cheaper than new dirty power. " https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/26/magazine/clim...
Power demand is inelastic. What these agencies say about power prices is true if you don't factor in the fact that wind isn't always blowing and the sun isn't always shining. When wind and solar can produce power, they can produce it very cheaply. 1 watt of solar power is very expensive to produce from starlight, and so is 1 watt of wind power on a calm day.
The price of the batteries and/or overbuilt capacity has to be factored in to the price of renewable energy if you want to run the grid 100% on renewables. If you don't want batteries, and instead want a global grid, the cost of transport has to be factored in. Either proposition makes renewable energy extremely expensive for providing base load power, not to mention currently impossible.
Currently, we need something like 10-100 TWh of batteries for grid stabilization in just the US. Taking a high estimate of 1 TWh this year, that would be 10-100 years of the entire current global lithium ion battery production (not including the fact that those batteries are going to depreciate over 5-10 years). Pumped storage and other (weirder) energy storage methods also can't scale up enough to get anywhere near this demand.
