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> Manufacturing, refining, and AI improvements are going to reduce the price of batteries by another 90%

This is a pipe dream. Battery demand will be astronomical for decades to come. That means ramping up supply and prioritising deployment via price signals.



Your logic is backwards, it is the demand for batteries that will make them cheap. Just look at the actual data

https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline


> it is the demand for batteries that will make them cheap

This isn’t how supply and demand work. Demand can induce scale efficiencies in production, which lowers costs. That’s what’s happening in your link, which tracks through 2018.

In 2019, electric car sales shares rose globally and non-linearly [1]. We persist on that path. As a result, battery costs are spiking [2][3].

[1] https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ad8fb04c-4f75-42fc-... page 15

[2] https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack-prices-fall-to-an-a...


It is exactly how supply and demand works, lithium refiners are making huge profits, which causes more investment in refining capabilities which unlocks larger economies of scale.

If you don't understand this please just circle back to this thread in 5 years, and I can show you what actually happened.




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