I think it's fair to say that between self driving cars and self guided quadracopters, it is entirely possible to have a fully or nearly autonomous end-to-end logistics system in the next 10-15 years. A lot of the problems with longer distance quadracopters could be overcome with a self driving delivery van, similar to an aircraft carrier with fighter jets.
Humorously, fetching a small package with a well-defined size and shelf location and putting it into a standardized box on a conveyor belt is by far the easiest step of this process to automate.
In all seriousness, there's no reason that homes or apartment complexes couldn't have fairly standardized drone landing pads. Clever people could probably rig up some sort of simple elevator to bring the shipments inside. Incidentally, the landing pads could also be marked in a standard way to assist in computer vision controlled automated landing.
I think you're right. Then the next huge $bn+ company will be the ones who are able to solve the mathematical challenge of optimizing the symphony of orders, autonomous vehicles, drones, and hindering variables such as traffic and weather to maximize system throughput (and thereby profit) in near real-time. If there are multiple competitors and one figures this out better than the others, they will ultimately win.
Like the aircraft carrier and aircraft, you could have a delivery vehicle that acted as a quadracopter platform to take the item from van to house over shorter distances.
Ugh. You say this as a joke, but I vote we come up with a list of features that could be cited as prior art and stick a hash of 'em into the BTC block chain.
I wasn't joking. This is how software patent creation works. Before something can be made in practice, make all the algorithms you might need to implement it.
Yeah, no matter how obvious something is, someone will probably be able to find a trivial variation of it to patent. I mean, if you have a Taco Copter, clearly a Burrito Copter is nonobvious. I wonder just how trivial they'd allow something like this. I mean it's obvious enough that you can adapt existing telemetry systems and collision avoidance algorithms to this activity, but I doubt the lawyers think it obvious.
But the bigger picture here is to expand what you order from Amazon. The eventual goal would be more along the lines of small singleton items you'd run to a convenience/drug/grocery store for.
Even after you account for a minimum price to make it worthwhile, that's many, many more deliveries than UPS/FedEx does.
Sorry, I was agreeing with you, I've seen pretty much that exact question asked when people talk about autonomous vehicles delivering packages and here we have a huge logistics company playing with the answer.
This is terrifying. If they successfully lobby to legalize commercial drones in low-flying airspace, the peaceful sky will be polluted with flying robots (we've destroyed the terrestrial environment already, seriously don't need to destroy the sky too), businesses would have access to terrifying surveillance, criminals/terrorists could remotely break into drones or fly their own disguised to look like commercial ones (and load them with cameras or weapons), etc. All so Amazon could be slightly faster than Instacart?
FYI I'm not a luddite and I recognize the increased convenience that faster shipping would provide and the potential other gains that would come of commercial drones. But the tradeoff just doesn't seem worth it here at all.
Flying drones would offset the number of cars and trucks that are roaming around our streets, highways, and bridge by putting them into the sky. Would it be better or worse to replace all of those cars that come in/out of a Wal-mart, Target, and Safeway with drones? I have no idea, but I'm excited to find out.
Regarding your other concerns, there was an interesting episode of Freakonomics with Clay Shirky about the Internet, and how it gets regulated (or doesn't) by the fears of what it could do. A relevant exchange with the host starts here [1] at 20:08. The audio transcript is also available and Ctrl-F to "Let me ask you this kind of more." Shirky says:
"... there’s a large class of problems that you don’t solve until you have them. Right? You hear all of the ethicists saying oh the technology is outrunning ethics, to which the pragmatist answer is that’s exactly what we want. If you and I were to sit down right now and say well let’s draw up regulations for time travel and telekinesis we would, it’s a ridiculous question."
"The 1865 act required all road locomotives, which included automobiles, to travel at a maximum of 4 mph (6 km/h) in the country and 2 mph (3 km/h) in towns and have a crew of three travel, one of whom should carry a red flag walking 60 yards (55 m) ahead of each vehicle. "
"In addition to any concerns about the state of the roads, by the 1860s, there was concern that the widespread use of traction engines, such as road locomotives and agricultural engines, would endanger the safety of the public. It was feared that engines and their trailers might cause fatal accidents, scare horses, block narrow lanes, and disturb the locals by operating at night. "
My terrestrial environment is not destroyed at all. In fact it is quite pleasant.
The occasional buzzing quadra-copter would be sweet music compared to the infernal leaf blowers and lawn-care equipment that gets a frequent workout.
These aren't going to end the world. Especially if it saves lots of people making lots of small trips to the shops for single items. In fact I would say they would make a positive contribution to quality of life.
>FYI I'm not a luddite
But you are talking like one.
I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not. But if you really are serious, criminals can already use drones and there is no profitable reason any private business would want to track you with drones (and if it did become an issue we could outlaw that specifically without stopping legitimate uses of drones.)
As far as "polluting the sky" that's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. Flying robots delivering packages everywhere sounds incredibly awesome to me, and if not, well we can't please everyone's aesthetic preference. Our current infrastructure of cars and pavement everywhere isn't particularly beautiful as it is. Electric drones flying back and forth don't require any new infrastructure or "destroy the sky".
I also doubt there would be drone's everywhere. Maybe, but I'm guessing it'd just be something you occasionally see. You might not notice it at all depending how high they fly.
It seems like such a massive optimization over the driver-and-gas-truck-around-town solution, that when I think more long-term, it just feels inevitable that this technology will be everywhere, even though I had the same reaction as you. "Terrifying".
I think this is fascinating, both for what the world will look like a few years down the road, as well as for all the questions that need to be answered.
A few random thoughts:
1) "Safety questions" - drones won't fly drunk, or while texting, or putting on makeup, or...you get the point. We regularly engage in what is arguably the most dangerous activity on the planet without batting an eye or thinking we should clamp down on the number of barely-trained 16-yo's doing it, so I'm not going to be moved by the safety concerns on this one. If for no other reason than drones are expensive, and lawsuits more so, so you can expect a pretty good safety record
2) "Noise/environment concerns" - I was working in the SF Bay Area when 9/11 happened; it was weird to suddenly not have planes constantly taking off from 3 different airports. For a few days.
It will be strange to have this things buzzing around the sky - for a few months. Then you'll stop looking up. I can't imaging them being worse than a leaf blower or a big diesel delivery truck.
3) "Airspace/regulations" - this part is fascinating to me. How do you avoid children's kites? Rival delivery drones? BB-guns? (I know that's what I'd be doing - a lucky shot to a rotor, and I'm the Hero Slayer of the 6th Grade). It is - literally (now that "literally" means anything you want it to, I can use it without fear) - a new frontier, with the same types of questions we're asking about Moon and Asteroid rights. I'm psyched we have these types of technical questions to deal with now.
4) "Surveillance/terrorists/et al" - whatever your concern - too late.
Start this post thinking to just think about & list my response to each major point raised elsewhere; looks like I've come out pretty keen on this whole thing. Hello, future! Isaac Asimov, you almost made it.
Drone's may not have uniquely human problems, but they will have uniquely drone problems... plus, whatever advantages gained will simply mean drones will be pushed to their limit, until new uniquely drone problems are exposed. The only difference is that at this point the uniquely drone problems are new and not as well understood.
No, that wasn't my point - simply stating that any technology comes with its own issues, so dismissing a tech because it has issues is silly. We accept the perils of driving cars, we'll reach a point of acceptance with drones
I recently found myself looking at contemporary styled letter boxes, including some at $900ish that were quickly ruled out. It felt utterly stupid to be spending even $100 on something used to receive letters, all of which might be bills, advertising or invitations too formal to arrive by email.
It's interesting that we aren't being pitched package boxes with one way delivery and security keypads, etc.
I don't get why either. Just have a drop box like in the old days when ice used to be delivered house to house into the icebox via a little locked door the iceman had the key too.
Although with these, I don't see why window box style package drops wouldn't appear. All it would have to be is a rigid mesh frame so it's not affected by wind/rain/snow, which would also make it light weight so it could be constructed easily large enough for the mini helicopters to make drops into. Put the QR codes on a sticker that goes on the window like an alarm company sticker.
I know the first response will be "that'll never happen", but it would allow package delivery any time, anywhere. Live on the 5th floor of a walk up? Your new game will be waiting right outside your window when you get home.
I honestly imagine there would be high demand for this for courier services.
The lack of these in big cities is especially perplexing, since theft is a larger concern than in the suburbs. Why doesn't my apartment in NYC have a one-way drop box for delivery?
If you recast these questions according to how deliveries work right now, I think you see that we already have all those problems and we manage to live with them:
1. Won't theft run rampant if UPS drops off your package at your door when you're not home?
2. Don't drivers of cars and trucks risk getting shot or stopped?
3. Will cars and trucks travel only in good weather?
4. The highways are going to be littered with cars and trucks driving around? Won't this lead to "traffic jams"?
5. Will there be a service where you can rent a car (or taxi) to spy on your mate?
I'm not trying to be glib, but rephrasing the questions like this puts the issues in a new light. You can see the potential problems and solutions.
Also, it should be mentioned that the answer to those questions is that thousands of packages get stolen and thousands of people get killed every year in the current system, yet we still apparently find it acceptable. I find it hard to imagine this drone delivery paradigm being worse.
#4 is less an issue since one truck can carry all the packages for people on its route. With Prime Air, it looks like it's one drone per package/person/destination. If the tradeoff is between vehicles per package (A) and average time to delivery (B), trucks choose A and drones choose B.
#3 is wrong. Flying a drone in a windy / rainy weather isn't exactly the same as driving a car. One is more massive and resistive. The drone we see in demo probably can't fly very well under strong wind or heavy ring. Size matters.
I think that's a misplaced concern. I'd rather have them in the skies than on the streets, competing with personal automobiles, pedestrians, bicyclists, etc.
Cars and trucks are also a distinct threat to birds.
Really - unless you lived on 5th Avenue downstream from a local delivery drone center, I doubt you'd see many drones. I don't see how we would see a sparrow flying past as 'pretty' and a drone flying past as 'ugly'. I would be amused to watch them from a window, just like I get amusement from watching planes take off and land. I guess it depends on your perspective.
Birds would be a valid concern in the event that they crash into the drone... Drones falling from the sky is due to a pidgin damaging it's rotor would suck. Imagine being hit by a drone and a pidgin :/
Fun thought: Hey! We now can get an owl to deliver to us our letters! (Harry Potter!)
Serious thought: Nice. Though what safety precaution will be in place? How many can be fly at the same time? How exactly do we pick up this drone? What stops non-owner from picking up the delivery? What stops from someone detouring the drone to a different location? How does it know where to drop? How to drop? Some environment reader must be implemented in this robot.
1) drone failure causing damage to people or property
2) limited operational capabilities in regards to weather conditions. As someone who has flown ram air canopies in urban environments, I can tell you that 10mph winds of a building creates some interesting vortices. What's the air speed of a quad/octocopter-style drone?
3) shared airspace issues. These drones will probably fly pretty low (<1000ft?) and they will not be alone. There will be many drones in the air, from various manufacturers and companies. Imagine the ATC complexity in an environment like that. There's no system for that today.
Solving problems like that would probably be very interesting.
My main concern is environmental impact. I'd be interested in an analysis of the effects of producing these drones + environmental cost of powering them + environmental cost of producing those yellow boxes vs. cost of delivery truck.
Edit: Sincerely curious as to why this got voted down. Is environmental impact not a possible issue with this system?
The main thing is energy density - the batteries only allow for about 10-15 mins flight with a reasonable payload. Considering Amazon will have to do a roundtrip, this will not give them a very long range.
The second thing is safety - we never fly above people. I don't think the authorities will allow Amazon to fly over populated areas until the tech is 100% safe, which it isn't yet.
I think we're looking around the same time frame as with self driving electric cars becoming commonplace.. Many of the problems with battery life and safety are shared. Maybe 7 years?
Just last week I was having what I thought was a fanciful conversation with a friend about exactly this. I'm amazed to see this materialise and very interested to see how the regulation process is handled.
Crazy ridiculous idea: have the copters attached to a cable or pole that it drags along the ground, or whatever is necessary so it isn't considered a flying vehicle. Or just fly it really close to the ground.
And it will probably record it and call the police on you. That drones specifically will be targeted for crime is ridiculous. Do you steal packages left out in front of people's houses or mail? What about ATMs and vending machines that are full of cash and just left unattended?
Crime will happen, sure, but it won't be that common and there are easy things that could be done to deter it.
I hate to think that my neighbor buying a hdmi cable means that my backyard will get a fly over by a camera enabled amazon drone. This does seem magical though.
My first thought is that knocking drones out of the sky (not necessarily to steal their contents) could become the new fun activity for bored juvenile delinquents.
If drones become the common place, why should any one steal them.
Honestly its a 18th century person using horse carriages saying cars becoming common will lead to rampant car theft. If something is freely available the motivation to steal it drops.
Presumably they'll have GPS and will phone home constantly- if someone shoots it down/hits it with a thrown ball/etc Amazon will probably send someone out to find it. If they find it mounted on someone's wall like a hunting trophy they'll call the police.
Shoot it down, take out the battery, put it in a faraday cage bag and sell it to the blackhat hardware modder. It ain't pretty but a few of those, and you can afford both food and mortage. You got to live off something, and jobs have been hard to come by since The Automatization. </story>
